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INFLECTION

Rethinking research funding and evaluation in the agentic AI era

Grant writing and reviewing are changing rapidly in an AI-augmented world, particularly with the development of agentic AI tools, which can undertake complex, multi-stage tasks. Across research systems, the generation of good ideas now runs at machine speed; but validation and verification of those ideas still runs at human speed.

This project will fill an urgent gap in our knowledge by establishing the scale of adoption and diffusion of AI-augmented workflows in funding and review systems; trialling and testing the changing capabilities of these tools in real funding contexts; and supporting research funders to consider policy and process responses to these changes. 

Responses by funders so far to these challenges have largely tried to salvage an application-led “push” model. Within this project, we will work with a leading group of funders to explore moves towards a “pull” model: funders using AI (in combination with human expertise) to seek out who and what to fund, and to allocate validation capacity, while designing out the risks of Matthew effects, model monoculture and novelty collapse.

Supported by a substantial investment from UKRI (Grant Ref: UKRI6738) via the UKRI Metascience Research Grants programme in partnership with Coefficient Giving, INFLECTION brings together researchers, policymakers, and an international consortium of funders to pursue three objectives:

  • To build a comparative dataset for real-time monitoring of the uptake and diffusion of generative and agentic AI across diverse contexts, in terms of application volumes, score compression, topic convergence, novelty and other indicators;
  • To use robust metascientific methods to test opportunities and limits to AI augmentation of processes of ideation, drafting, development, peer review and evaluation of proposals;
  • To coproduce with project partners a structured menu of policy, process and strategic responses, and consider which of these, in what combination, are feasible and desirable.

RoRI Project team

Project lead, RoRI/UCL

Josie Coburn

Research Fellow

Research Fellow, RoRI

Josie Coburn is a Research Fellow in Metascience at RoRI at the Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy (STEaPP) at University College London (UCL). She is an interdisciplinary social scientist with a portfolio of interests including:

  • Metascience (research on research / science of science), including how research is funded, organised, practiced and evaluated, and research and innovation funding experimentation;
  • The desirability and feasibility of targeting research to address societal needs, how and why research directions evolve over time (e.g. serendipity, failure, and other aspects of research processes and research environments);
  • Opening up decision-making in science, technology and innovation, and the appraisal and evaluation of research and innovation policies and strategies.

Josie works in a range of fields including health and biomedicine, energy and sustainability, and AI and ICTs. She uses a variety of methods including qualitative, scientometric, and hybrid methods. For example, Josie is skilled in Multicriteria Mapping (MCM), a hybrid quantitative-qualitative method for opening up complex decision making by mapping different perspectives on a range of options and taking into account uncertainty.

Before joining RoRI, Josie worked at the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at the University of Sussex as a Research Fellow. She has a PhD in Science and Technology Policy Studies funded by the ERC; MSc’s in Public Policies for Science, Technology and Innovation funded by the ESRC, and in Evolutionary and Adaptive Systems funded by the EPSRC; and a BA in Artificial Intelligence. She also has 4 years’ experience as an Analyst Programmer and Systems Analyst in large and small ICT firms.

Project lead, RoRI/University of Sheffield

Tom Stafford

Senior Research Fellow

Senior Research Fellow, RoRI and Professor, University of Sheffield

Tom Stafford is Professor of Cognitive Science at the University of Sheffield’s School of Psychology, where his work applies insights from neuroscience, experimental design, and data science to the study of learning, decision-making, and bias.

Until August 2026, he is on secondment at RoRI, and from 2026 to 2028, he will hold a Visiting Professorship in the Department of Computer Science and Technology at the University of Cambridge.

As a Senior Fellow at RoRI, Tom leads AFIRE (Accelerator For Innovation & Research Funding Experimentation), a programme dedicated to catalysing high-quality evidence on research processes.

His expertise in metaresearch is further reflected in his role on the PsyArXiv Scientific Advisory Board, where he chairs the Public Engagement Subcommittee.

Previously, Tom served as the University Research Practice Lead for the University of Sheffield (2020–2025), where he represented the institution in the UK Reproducibility Network (UKRN) and chaired the national UKRN Institutional Leads group. An experienced educator, he also designed and led Sheffield’s MSc in Psychological Research Methods with Data Science.

He shares regular updates on his work and writing projects via his Substack, tomstafford.substack.com.

Executive Director, RoRI/UCL

James Wilsdon

Executive Director

Executive Director, RoRI and Professor of Research Policy at University College London (UCL)

James is one of the founders of RoRI and has been its director since 2019. He is also Professor of Research Policy at University College London (UCL), based in its Department of Science, Technology, Engineering & Public Policy (STEaPP). Since the late-1990s, as a researcher, writer, adviser and campaigner, James has worked at the heart of science and research policy in the UK and internationally. In addition to academic posts at the universities of Sheffield, Sussex and Lancaster, he has worked in think tanks, NGOs and as director of science policy for the Royal Society, the UK’s national academy of sciences. 

In his work, James has advanced concepts such as upstream public engagement, science diplomacy, responsible metrics and responsible research assessment; and he has co-founded or chaired initiatives such as People & Planet; the Campaign for Social Science; International Network for Government Science Advice (INGSA); UK Forum for Responsible Research Metrics; and the Research on Research Institute (RoRI).

In 2014, James was asked to chair an independent UK government review of research metrics, published as The Metric Tide. He subsequently chaired a European Commission expert group on Next Generation Metrics, and in 2022, revisited these debates with colleagues in Harnessing the Metric Tide.

In 2015, he was elected a Fellow of the UK’s Academy of Social Sciences, and in 2022, of the International Science Council.

Geraint Reese

Vice Provost (Research, Innovation and Global Engagement), UCL

Head of Programmes, RoRI

Peter Kolarz

Head of Programmes

Head of Programmes, RoRI 

Pete is part of the core leadership team at RoRI. Current roles include leading the oversight of RoRI’s project portfolio and supporting leadership of the AFIRE and AGORRA projects. Pete is also involved in scoping and designing RoRi’s future portfolio of projects and programmes. 

Formerly a principal consultant at Technopolis, Pete has 12 years’ experience in the field of science and research policy, having managed or directed over 30 projects and worked as a researcher on many more. Highlights from this body of work include a major study on 38 modifications to peer review for grant funding, evaluating UKRI’s research funding response to Covid-19 (process and impact), a peer-learning initiative on partnered research programmes for the GRC, and two major impact assessments for the European Social Survey (ESS). Beyond the above, Pete has worked for clients including the Swiss National Science Foundation, the Research Council of Norway, Wellcome, the Academy of Finland, the Royal Society, the Human Frontier Science Program, and the Austrian Science Fund. 

Pete is a researcher, project manager, communicator and coach, with ample experience of sharing their expertise at several academic and professional conferences and at organisations including the OECD, the GRC, the German Data Forum (RatSWD) and the UK’s House of Lords. They hold a PhD in sociology from the University of Sussex and subsequently published a book on new directions for centre-left politics in the age of globalisation. Pete is a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, an associate fellow of the Higher Education Academy/ Advance HE and a fluent speaker of English and German. 

Research Fellow, RoRI/UCL

Anna Butters

Research Fellow

Research Fellow, RoRI and Research Associate, University of Sheffield 

Anna is a Research Associate at the University of Sheffield. She joined RoRI in 2024 to work with Tom Stafford and Stephen Pinfield on the Distributed Peer Review project.

Her research interests include research improvement, data communication, researcher wellbeing and research evaluation. With a background in psychology, she is interested in applying psychological theory and approaches to understand and improve research practices and systems. 

Anna completed her PhD in Psychology (2025), having previously completed an MA in Social Research (2021) and BSc in Psychology with Foundation Year (2020).

UKRI AI Metascience Early Career Fellow and Associate Professor, RoRI/UCL

Youyou Wu

UKRI AI Metascience Early Career Fellow

UKRI AI Metascience Early Career Fellow, RoRI and Lecturer, University College London

Youyou Wu is an Associate Professor of Psychology at University College London, based in the Department of Psychology and Human Development at IOE.

Trained as a psychologist, her research applies computational methods, including machine learning and natural language processing, to the study of individual differences such as personality. More recently, her work has expanded into metascience, focusing on how AI can improve research systems.

She joined the Research on Research Institute (RoRI) in 2024 as part of the GRAIL project, developing best practices for the use of AI in research funding. She also contributes to the AFIRE project, which helps funders design AI-related experiments.

In 2025, she was awarded the UKRI Metascience AI Early Career Fellowship to study the influence of generative AI on the language of science. 

Youyou’s project will investigate whether generative AI is reinventing the language of science in research publications, and the implications for peer review. It builds on her previous work at RoRI, where she developed AI guidance for research funders worldwide. She will collaborate with the UK Metascience Unit to translate insights from her research into policy recommendations. The fellowship will connect her with international metascience researchers, including a parallel cohort in the US and Canada, creating opportunities to collaborate and contribute to global debates on AI and the future of research.

UKRI AI Metascience Early Career Fellow and Research Fellow, RoRI/UCL

Basil Mahfouz

UKRI Metascience AI Early Career Fellow

UKRI AI Metascience Early Career Fellow, RoRI

Basil is a Research Fellow at RoRI, where he leverages computational methods to understand how research informs policy. He is a UKRI AI Metascience Early Career Fellow investigating how AI systems will transform the way science reaches policymakers. 

This work builds upon his PhD in Science, Technology, Engineering & Public Policy at University College London (UCL), where he developed machine learning approaches to study how governments access and use research. 

Basil’s research has been supported by partnerships with Elsevier and visiting fellowships at Northwestern University’s Centre for Science of Science & Innovation and Harvard University’s Centre for International Development. His work has been published in journals including Patterns and Sustainable Development, and presented at major international conferences including MetaScience, the Annual International Conference on Science and Technology Indicator, and the Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy. 

Before academia, Basil co-founded SynSapien, a collective intelligence platform connecting innovators globally to tackle societal challenges. He also worked as a strategic communications consultant for universities and research organisations in Qatar. His interdisciplinary background spans environmental technology (MSc, Imperial College London) and international politics (BSc, Georgetown University). 

His research interests focus on how AI and technology can enhance science by making it more accessible and impactful for society. 

About the UKRI Fellowship 

Basil’s UKRI AI Metascience Fellowship investigates a fundamental question at the intersection of artificial intelligence and evidence-based policymaking: how will AI systems change which scientific evidence informs government decisions? As governments increasingly adopt AI-powered tools for evidence identification, this research will provide the first large-scale empirical analysis of whether AI recommendations systematically differ from human-selected evidence. In collaboration with Northwestern Centre for Science of Science and Innovation and Elsevier, the fellowship will compare what policymakers have historically cited in systematic reviews and policy documents against what AI would recommend for the same topics, at scale. This will reveal the ‘invisible college’ of researchers whose work AI consistently identifies as policy-relevant but who remain unrecognised in current evidence pathways. 

Research Fellow, RoRI/CFA

Emer Brady

Research Fellow

Research Fellow, RoRI and Data Scientist, the Danish Centre for Studies in Research and Research Policy (CFA), Aarhus University

Emer is a data scientist at the Danish Centre for Studies in Research and Research Policy (CFA) at the Department of Political Science, Aarhus University. She has previously worked as a postdoc and research assistant within the department, supporting various quantitative projects. She is currently responsible for managing RoRI’s Funder Data Platform and was a participant in the PORTFOLIOS project.

Senior Research Fellow, RoRI/CFA

Carter Bloch

Senior Research Fellow

Senior Research Fellow, RoRI and Center Director, the Danish Centre for Studies in Research and Research Policy (CFA) at Aarhus University in Denmark

Carter is Professor and Center Director of the Danish Centre for Studies in Research and Research Policy (CFA) at Aarhus University in Denmark. Research areas  include research evaluation, economic analysis of the R&D, innovation and productivity, public sector innovation, quality work in higher education, and policy relevant indicators of science and innovation.

Most recently, Carter’s work has focused on how research and innovation funding programs are designed and how they shape research and its scientific and societal impacts. As part of this work, he has lead the PROSECON project funded by the Novo Nordisk Foundation and has contributed to a number of other studies of innovative funding programs such as ODIN, the Villum Experiment and the recently started Plant2Food project. Together with colleagues at CFA, Carter is coordinating and maintaining work on RoRI’s Funder Data Platform.

Martin Bulla

Associate Professor, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Peter Mikula

Researcher, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

"la Caixa" Foundation

la Caixa Foundation

The major philanthropic institution in Spain and, with an annual budget of 600 million euros in 2024, one of the biggest in Europe. Its mission is to contribute to building a better and fairer society, giving more opportunities to those most in need, with the values of trust, excellence and social commitment. With 120 years of existence, the “la Caixa” Foundation main areas of action are social welfare, education, research and innovation and culture.

ZonMw

ZonMw

A leading Dutch organisation in the field of health research and healthcare innovation. It funds knowledge development ranging from fundamental scientific research to practical implementation and evaluation research, knowledge utilisation and infrastructures, including consortia, (learning) networks, living labs, academic workplaces, partnerships and data infrastructures. 

Australian Research Council (ARC)

An independent body reporting to the Australian Government Minister for Education and Youth. The ARC administers a significant component of Australia’s investment in research and development, provides advice to the Minister on matters related to research, and assesses the quality, engagement and impact of university research.

Austrian Science Fund (FWF)

Austrian Science Fund (FWF)

Funds and supports outstanding researchers and their teams in their work at the cutting edge of research. They are given the freedom they need to conduct independent research and take unexpected directions. The international peer review process ensures quality in the selection of the best researchers and ideas from all disciplines.

King Baudouin Foundation

King Baudouin Foundation

An independent and pluralist foundation for the public interest. For over 45 years, the King Baudouin Foundation has been acting for the common good together with numerous partners, experts and donors. Their activities aim to foster sustainable and positive change in society, in Belgium, Europe and around the world.

The Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR)

Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR)

Canada’s federal funding agency for health research. Composed of 13 Institutes, they collaborate with partners and researchers to support the discoveries and innovations that improve our health and strengthen the healthcare system.

National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) was established on February 14, 1986, with the approval of the State Council of China.

As the main funding source for basic research in China, NSFC has developed a review system guided by the principles of reliance on experts, collective decision, merit-based selection, fairness and appropriateness to select the best proposals for funding.

NSFC has contributed to the enhancement of China’s innovative capability and social and economic development by supporting basic research, talent training and research infrastructure while equally emphasizing international cooperation and interdisciplinary research.

Novo Nordisk Foundation

Novo Nordisk Foundation

An independent Danish foundation with corporate interests. Their aims are to provide a stable basis for the commercial and research activities of the companies in the Novo Group (Novo Nordisk A/S and Novozymes A/S (Novonesis), and to support scientific, humanitarian and social causes.

Research Ireland

Taighde Éireann – Research Ireland is the national research and innovation agency. Research Ireland supports the contribution of research and innovation to Ireland’s economic, social, cultural, and environmental development and sustainability, as well as strengthen the engagement between the research and innovation system and enterprise, Government and public bodies, the voluntary sector and society.

Research Council Norway (RCN)

The Research Council of Norway (RCN) is the national funding agency for research and experimental development (R&D) and R&D-supported innovation of Norway. Our task is to make the best research and innovation possible. The Research Council works to foster new ideas, promote ground-breaking research and radical innovation and cultivate a society in which research is created, used and shared, and thus contributes to restructuring and enhanced sustainability.

Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)

Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)


The leading Swiss organisation for the promotion of scientific research. In close collaboration with higher education institutions and other partners, the SNSF works towards creating the best possible conditions for the development and international integration of Swiss research.

The British Academy

The British Academy

The UK’s National Academy for the humanities and social sciences. It invests in researchers and projects across the UK and overseas, engages the public with fresh thinking and debates, and brings together scholars, government, business and civil society to influence policy for the benefit of everyone.

Evidence is mounting of a surge of AI adoption across different parts of the research enterprise. In 2023, a few months after the launch of ChatGPT, Nature surveyed 1,659 active researchers and found levels of LLM usage remained broadly low, rising to 28% among those who used LLMs in their actual research (Van Noorden & Perkel, 2023). A mid-2025 survey by Elsevier of 3,234 researchers across 113 countries found that 58% had used AI tools in their work—up from 34% in 2024—with 41% using it to help draft grant proposals, and 38% using it to help write research papers or reports (Elsevier, 2025).

This year, computational social scientists analysed thousands of proposals submitted to two US funding bodies, the National Institutes of Health and the NSF. In a pre-print on arXiV, they report an upswing of between 10-15% in patterns of text that suggest LLM use in grants since 2023 (Qian et al 2026). Most recently, Rees and Wilsdon (2026) draw together aggregate applications data from 12 multidisciplinary funders and highlight an average increase of 57% in application numbers from 2022 to 2025.

The observed increase is almost certainly driven in large part by the rise of AI. However, the differences in levels of increase also indicate that national, disciplinary and call-specific contexts matter – including overall levels of competitions, resource scarcity and other system-incentives for researchers to increase their application-rates.

The scale of increase in AI use and application volume necessitates an evidence-informed policy and practice response from the research funding community. This project will provide just that. To do so, it will first dig deeper into the data of several funders’ application trends over the past five years (to distinguish between pre- and post-AI trends, and between funder/country specific and overarching trends). Second, we will use experimental methods to better understand the effect of AI-use on application quality (and reviewers’ ability to identify or judge AI-generated proposals). Finally, we will draw from these findings a set of options for funders’ responses to the observed trends, and collaboratively assess each option. The result of this project will be timely recommendations and intelligence to help funders move forward in rapidly changing AI-augmented environments. 

Our three specific research objectives are:

  • To establish a comparative funder dataset which enables real-time monitoring and comparison of the uptake of AI across different research funding systems, in terms of application volume and quality indicators;
  • To test the feasibility of agentic AI workflows for different funding calls and research disciplines, and the extent to which AI-augmented applications are detectable and can compete on a range of quality measures;
  • To co-produce with funders a menu of policy, evaluation criteria and process responses, and consider which of these are the most feasible and desirable.

Methodology and Work Plan

This project is structured into four work packages.

1. Mapping the trends

We are analysing application data across participating funders to identify patterns tied to the rise of AI tools, disaggregating trends across demographics and funding schemes. Key areas include:

  • Shifts in total application volumes and AI-driven score compression
  • Markers of generative AI language and hallucinated citations in proposals
  • Topic and methodological convergence, alongside potential reductions in proposal “novelty”

2. Experiments of AI-driven applications in the funding process 

We test the capabilities and limitations of AI across the entire funding lifecycle:

  • The “Agentic Funding Sandpit”: An extreme test exploring how autonomous AI agents can augment or automate proposal preparation across disciplines.
  • Testing in the Field: With researcher and funder consent, select AI-augmented sandbox proposals may be entered into live schemes (ineligible for funding) to benchmark their competitive edge.
  • Retrospective Review: Comparing historical human review decisions against AI-generated evaluations to evaluate consistency, bias, and quality.

3. Evaluating funder options

Building on our empirical findings, we work alongside our funder cohort to co-design policy responses. We explore practical pathways, such as:

  • Tailored policies for AI use, from demand management to face-to-face evaluations
  • Hybrid evaluation models that balance expert human judgment with automated scale
  • Secure sandbox environments that allow testing without compromising researcher IP

Through collaborative mapping workshops, participating funders will evaluate the feasibility, risks, and trade-offs of these options to build actionable policy packages.

4. Practical guidance and future prospects

We will synthesise findings into practical guidance for research funders navigating the AI transition. Because AI capabilities continue to evolve rapidly, this work will lay the foundation for long-term tracking:

  • Continuous Monitoring: Regular 6- to 12-month pulse checks on application trends via RoRI’s Funder Data Platform (FDP).
  • Future Research: Scoping dedicated follow-up initiatives as part of RoRI’s post-2027 programme.

INFLECTION will run from June 2026 to October 2027.

We foresee the following outputs:

The project will also produce a plan for further cross-funder monitoring of application rates

An initial summary of findings (likely as a short RoRI working paper) to serve as the basis for the WP3 workshops

An initial draft booklet of response options to serve as the basis for the WP3 workshops

A final working paper launched at the end of the project, detailing all the project’s finding

The final working paper will be accompanied by a practice-oriented high-gloss short report going through the various response options and reporting on the results of the WP3 workshops, outlining what were concluded to be the most promising options for research funding in the age of AI-driven application

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